From Uncertainty to Opportunity: MEREDA’s Forecast Conference Highlights Maine’s Real Estate Industry

On Thursday, February 27th, nearly 1,000 of Maine’s real estate and development professionals gathered at the Holiday Inn By the Bay to learn about the latest trends and outlooks for the development and real estate economy at the Maine Real Estate & Development Association’s (MEREDA’s) Forecast Conference and Member Showcase. “The Forecast Conference is a tremendous opportunity for education. This is where our colleagues and peers gather – some of the smartest people I know – for a day of sharing ideas and making connections that improve all of our businesses,” shares MEREDA President Shannon Richards. “It’s an essential event.”

The Forecast Conference featured a lineup of industry experts – heavy hitters from all corners of the industry. The day kicked off with a presentation from Chris Mallett, EdD, the Chief Administrative Officer at Northeastern University’s Roux Institute. His talk was entitled “Partnering for Maine’s Next Frontier” and focused on the forces shaping the economy of today and tomorrow in Maine. Mallett spoke about how Maine can continue to be a compelling place for people and business to move to, outlining the advantages the state has for competing in a global marketplace, as well as Portland’s potential for becoming a global tech hub like Seattle or Toronto. With the room full of real estate professionals, Mallett extolled the audience to think about how to create more professional opportunities for students. Explaining that the Roux Institute and other higher ed organizations bring a wealth of diverse talent to the state, but “we need help retaining them.” Mallet urged the audience to think about how they can help create more economic opportunities to keep young people here. He then provided an overview of the new Portland campus, an exciting reenvisioning of the historic B&M Beans factory site. He concluded by encouraging more collaboration, saying that when we work together, “the possibilities are unlimited.”

The morning continued with an overview of MEREDA’s legislative agenda with Elizabeth Frazier of Pierce Atwood. With 86,000 housing units needed in Maine by 2030, Frazier highlighted the legislative roadmap for housing production in Maine, calling out the need for government processes and capacity to be streamlined. For the upcoming legislative session, she explained that MEREDA will focus on three areas: workforce housing density, historic tax credits, and statutory subdivision review. Frazier closed with the request for MEREDA members to participate in the process by sharing their voices in Augusta on important issues. Next, James Marple, a Senior Economist from TD Bank provided an economic outlook for 2025. “It’s a difficult time to be an economic forecaster,” he began in reference to the current environment of uncertainty. Highlighting how the economy has outperformed expectations in the last two years, Marple said the recent administration’s focus on tariffs and immigration will have an impact on the economy. He predicted that the economy will still grow in the year ahead, but will likely be slower with some quarterly volatility. On mortgage rates, Marple’s expectation was that the Fed will cut rates if we don’t see a trade war.

The afternoon presented multiple sessions each hour. In the first group of sessions, the Regional Outlook featured Molly Briggs of Epstein Commercial Real Estate, Brandon Mitchell of Malone Commercial Brokers, and Kevin Fletcher of KW Realty. Moderated by Roxane Cole of Roxane Commercial Real Estate, the panel discussed the real estate activity in the state from York to Aroostook County. Briggs shared about the positive impact of the Maine Savings Amphitheater in the Bangor area. Mitchell reflected on 2024, saying, “It was not a great year, but deals did happen.” He cited one of the biggest deals of the year – the sale of the Pepperell Mill as one example. Looking ahead, Mitchell said, “2025 looks brighter and feels better. There’s more energy and good stuff in the pipeline.” Fletcher presented on the Lewiston-Auburn market, and agreed that 2024 was a “funky year” where deals felt like a grind. The group also discussed the need for solutions to the housing crisis, with Briggs explaining how all vendor sectors have to pay more per hour because people can’t afford to live here.

The first session also included an Office Outlook and a Hospitality Outlook panel. The Office Outlook was moderated by John Finegan of The Boulos Company and featured Nate Stevens of The Boulos Company and Jeana Stewart of SMRT. The group discussed the prevailing trends in the office market, including the “whys” behind office space decision making and the overall performance of the office real estate sector. The Hospitality Outlook was moderated by Marieke Thormann and featured Alex Wolff of the Prentice Hospitality Group, Nate DeLois of Uncommon Hospitality, and Allison Lynch of Baskervill. Their conversation explored the emerging trends in Maine’s hotel and restaurant sectors, examining how local developments compare with national industry trends. They also analyzed the impact of rising construction, labor, and resource costs on the future of hospitality.

The second afternoon session featured a presentation on Municipal Trends with Mark Adams of Sebago Technics, Dan Stevenson of The City of Westbrook, and Marty Grohman of The City of Biddeford. Moderated by Gary Vogel, the group examined impediments to development at the municipal level and what some municipalities are doing to support growth. Adams, whose firm works with many municipalities on about 1,200 projects each year, talked about how staffing shortages and high turnover at the municipal level have impacted the ability to move projects forward. Citing the recent changes in federal funding sources, Stevenson predicted that there will be problems for projects with longer time financing horizons and recommended that municipalities “be careful from this point forward what [federal funding] you rely on.” He went on to encourage people to learn how to understand and speak development language so they can collaborate effectively with developers and open up more opportunities. Another big takeaway for municipalities that want to attract more investment: they should begin by investing in themselves with the infrastructure needed. Grohman then shared some of the Biddeford experience, which added 2,116 housing units last year, a growth of 20%.

Also in the second session was an Industrial Outlook panel moderated by Josh Soley of CORE with Josh Benthien of Northland Enterprises and Adam Martin of Harvey Performance. Another panel was the Construction Outlook with Nicole Rogers of SMRT, Tim Schneider of SageStone Consulting, and Mason Rowell of Landry/French Construction, Moderated by Ben Brennan of Kone, the panel provided some insight around opportunities and challenges in the industry with panelists sharing how they are positioning themselves for success in the current environment.

The final group of afternoon sessions included a Financing Trends panel with Steve deCastro of Maine Community Bank, Andrew Silsby of Kennebec Savings Bank, and David Hulit of Port 51 Lending. Moderated by Kim Twitchell of NBT Bank, the group discussed the regulatory environment and the impact of the new administration, along with the changing yield curve. Commenting on how every inverted yield curve since 1950 has been followed by a recession, Silsby said there are still some questions on how the economy will play out in the near future, but sees the conventional bank market as strongly positioned to lead into the future. Hulit, an SBA lender, expects some downstream effects from the new administration’s changes, but thinks the good parts of the SBA loan program will stay intact. The group also discussed how banks review financing requests and talked about how borrowers can educate themselves. deCastro outlined how many banks have subspecialties and areas of expertise and customers can learn about what different banks’ strengths are as they connect with bankers in Maine, who are invested in building good relationships with clients. Silsby also added that their portfolio impacts their appetite for different types of loans, so borrowers should not take it personally if their loan request is denied, but rather try another bank. Looking ahead, the group sees a slow start to the year with the current uncertainty, but hopes to see some rebounding later in 2025.

Another panel provided a Retail Outlook moderated by Jenn Small of Malone Commercial Brokers with Taryn Trefethen of Brookfield Properties and Nick Margitza of WS Development. The third panel in the session was a Residential & Multifamily Outlook moderated by Paul Peck of Drummond & Drummond with Brit Vitalius of Vitalius Real Estate Group, John Laliberte of Reveler Development, and Elise Kiely of
Legacy Properties Sotheby’s International Realty. With an 8.3% increase in the sales price for single family homes in Maine, demand continues to outpace the supply of homes in Maine.

At the end of the day, as MEREDA members continued to gather in conversation, it was clear that this is a group that will continue to find ways to work together to develop a responsible and sustainable future for Maine. Sponsors of the event include TD Bank, The City of Bangor, Landry/French Construction, Perkins Thompson, Sebago Technics, M&R Holdings, Mainebiz, Bar Harbor Bank & Trust, Katahdin Trust Company, Maine Redevelopment Land Bank, M.W. Hoss Construction, Pierce Atwood, United Insurance, Westbrook Development Corporation, and Wright-Ryan Construction.